Budapest, Hungary – Could Hungary leave the EU? A possibility worth considering, albeit unlikely, according to economists at Saxo Bank.
Every year, Saxo Bank publishes a list of its top 10 so-called “outrageous predictions”, designed “not as a forecast for what 2020 will bring, but as an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable”.
That being said, they did predict the U.K.’s departure from the EU as early as 2014…
Hungary’s exit from the EU a possibility
This year, Saxo Bank experts and analysts predicted that Hungary could take steps to follow the U.K. and leave the EU by the end of 2020.
“Hungary has been an impressive economic success since it joined the EU in 2004”, Saxo Bank writes. “But the 15-year marriage now seems in trouble”, as the European Union launched the Article 7 procedure to address what it sees as Budapest’s democratic backsliding and moves to undermine the rule of law.
“The push-back from Hungary’s leadership is that the country is only protecting itself: mainly protecting its culture from mass immigration […] But an open economy with insular governance, immigration and press rules? It’s an unsustainable status quo, and the two sides will find it tough to reconcile in 2020 as the Article 7 procedure moves slowly through the EU system”.
According to Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank chief economist, the reduction of EU subsidy flows into Hungary over the next few years will be the tipping point, and it won’t take long for the anti-EU sentiment to prevail, paving the way for Budapest’s departure from the 28-member bloc and its rapprochement with countries it sees as more fitting allies, like Turkey.
How probable do you think their prediction is?
Saxo Bank’s “outrageous predictions” for 2020
Here’s the full list of Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions for next year. Note that anyone can vote for the one they prefer, until December 20.
- Chips go cold in AI winter
- The sudden arrival of stagflation rewards value over growth
- European Central Bank folds and hikes rates
- In energy, green is not the new black
- South Africa electrocuted by ESKOM debt
- U.S. President Trump announces America First Tax to reduce trade deficit
- Sweden breaks bad
- Democrats win a clean sweep in the U.S. 2020 election, driven by women and millennials
- Hungary leaves the EU
- Asia launches new reserve currency in move away from U.S. dollar dependence